The wind blows strong along the northern coast of Mozambique. In Palma, the palm trees tremble, but it is not the sea gusts that worry the inhabitants. It is the distant rumble of machines, the endless ballet of helicopters, and the promise of a future as brilliant as it is fragile. Natural gas, buried in the depths of the Indian Ocean, attracts energy giants like moths to a flame. But at what price?
A discovery that changes everything
In 2010, the American company Anadarko and the Italian ENI announced a major discovery off the Rovuma basin: more than 180 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Very quickly, Mozambique, one of the poorest countries in the world, found itself thrust to the center of global energy ambitions.
“It was as if a treasure had been found right beneath our feet,” recalls João Matola, a former engineer at the national company ENH. “People were already talking about making Mozambique the Qatar of Africa.”
Projects followed one after another: Mozambique LNG, Coral South FLNG, Rovuma LNG… Investments exceeded 50 billion dollars. Companies TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, ENI and the China National Petroleum Corporation moved in, transforming coastal villages into massive construction sites.
Promises of gold and prosperity
For Mozambican authorities, gas represents a historic opportunity. The government is banking on fiscal revenues estimated at more than 100 billion dollars over thirty years. Enough to fund roads, hospitals, schools, and lift millions of people out of poverty.
“Gas is our passport to development,” declared President Filipe Nyusi in 2018. “We have a moral obligation to transform this wealth into well-being for our people.”
Ambitious plans emerged: the creation of special economic zones, the training of thousands of local technicians, the construction of port infrastructure and liquefaction plants. In Maputo, the enthusiasm was palpable. Analysts spoke of double-digit growth and a Mozambique soon to become indispensable on the global energy stage.
But a shadow grows in the north
As projects progressed, another phenomenon emerged in the province of Cabo Delgado: an armed insurgency. In 2017, a local Islamist group, Ansar al-Sunna, launched a series of attacks on villages. The conflict quickly intensified. In 2021, insurgents temporarily took control of Palma, just a few kilometers from the gas installations.
“We heard gunfire all night. By morning, everyone was fleeing toward the sea,” recalls Fatima, a displaced resident. “The soldiers were overwhelmed. The insurgents were everywhere.”
Faced with the threat, TotalEnergies suspended its flagship project, Mozambique LNG, valued at 20 billion dollars. Thousands of workers were evacuated. The gas dream wavered.
According to the UN, more than 800,000 people have been displaced by the conflict, and more than 4,000 killed. The link between the insurgency and the gas projects remains unclear, but for many, the rush for gas has exacerbated social tensions, local frustrations and inequalities.
A development that excludes?
In the villages of Cabo Delgado, many people see none of the promised benefits. Land has been requisitioned, fishermen displaced, and skilled jobs often given to expatriates.
“They took our beach, our sea, and now we can’t even fish anymore,” laments Manuel, a fisherman from Mocímboa da Praia. “They say it’s for the good of the country, but we see nothing.”
NGOs denounce an extractivist development model, focused on exports and showing little concern for local communities. In 2022, an Amnesty International report highlighted forced evictions, insufficient compensation and a lack of transparency in the management of gas revenues.
The government, for its part, claims to have learned from past mistakes. A sovereign wealth fund was created in 2023 to manage gas revenues in a fair and sustainable manner. But distrust persists.
Energy giants under pressure
Faced with instability, oil companies are adapting their strategy. ENI launched liquefied gas production in 2022 via a floating platform, Coral Sul FLNG, located 80 km offshore, far from conflict zones. A first in Africa.
“It is an innovative and safer solution in the current context,” explains an ENI executive speaking anonymously. “We can produce without depending on land-based infrastructure.”
TotalEnergies, for its part, announced its intention to resume operations in 2024, after reinforcing security with the help of Rwandan forces and the regional bloc SADC. But NGOs are concerned about the growing militarization of the region, to the detriment of civilians.
“Gas must not become a pretext to justify human rights violations,” warns Maria Tavares, a Mozambican legal expert. “A balance must be struck between security, development and social justice.”
An uncertain future, between hope and tension
Mozambique today stands at a crossroads. The gas potential is immense: the country could become the fourth largest exporter of liquefied gas in the world by 2030. But the challenges are equally colossal: persistent insecurity, corruption, inequality, and dependence on international markets.
The global energy transition adds further pressure. As Europe seeks alternatives to Russian gas, Mozambique is becoming a strategic supplier. But in the long term, the world is moving away from fossil fuels. The gas gamble is therefore also a gamble on time.
“We have a window of ten to fifteen years to transform this wealth into real development,” estimates Celso Correia, Minister of Agriculture. “After that, it may be too late.”
In the streets of Pemba, the regional capital, children play among the carcasses of abandoned trucks. The gas is there, somewhere beneath the sea. But for many, it remains a distant promise, almost unreal.
Will Mozambique be able to harness this wealth without being consumed by its flames?
