At dawn, the mist rises slowly above the calm waters of Lake Albert. On the shores, fishermen cast their nets, as they have done for generations. But beneath this peaceful surface, another world stirs. A world of black gold, promises, and tensions. For here, between the mountains of Uganda and the plains of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a crucial part of East Africa’s energy future is being played out.
A treasure buried beneath the waters
In 2006, the discovery of vast crude oil reserves in the Lake Albert region transformed Uganda’s economic prospects. Estimated at more than 6.5 billion barrels, of which 1.4 billion are recoverable, these resources quickly attracted the attention of energy giants. TotalEnergies, the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) launched into a strategic race to exploit this promising deposit.
The Afriques newsletter
- Free & no spam
- 1 email per day
- Unsubscribe in 1 click
“This is a historic opportunity for our country,” says James Mugisha, a petroleum engineer in Kampala. “We have the potential to transform our economy, create thousands of jobs, and reduce our dependence on imports.”
But this sudden wealth also raises concerns. For the oil of Lake Albert does not flow without consequences.
The EACOP project: a controversial pipeline
To transport crude oil from Lake Albert to the Tanzanian port of Tanga, a mega-project was born: the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP). At 1,443 kilometres long, it is the longest heated pipeline in the world. Its estimated cost exceeds 10 billion dollars.
This pipeline, crossing sensitive areas and agricultural land, has sparked fierce opposition. Environmental NGOs denounce the risks to biodiversity, particularly in Murchison Falls national park, and the impacts on local communities.
“We were expelled from our land without fair compensation,” says Grace Namusoke, a farmer from the Hoima district. “They promised schools, roads, jobs. But we have seen nothing come of it.”
In 2022, the European Parliament adopted a resolution calling for the suspension of the EACOP project, pointing to violations of human rights and the environment. International pressure that did not prevent the Ugandan government from continuing the works.
Between national ambition and foreign dependence
President Yoweri Museveni makes no secret of his determination. For him, oil is a lever of sovereignty and development. “Those who oppose our progress do not want Africa to develop. We are not going to listen to them,” he declared in a speech in 2023.
Yet dependence on foreign partners such as TotalEnergies or CNOOC raises questions. The contracts signed lack transparency, and the real benefits for the population remain unclear.
“There is a glaring lack of democratic oversight over the management of these resources,” warns Sarah Akena, an economist at Makerere University. “There is a great risk that oil revenues will fuel corruption rather than development.”
In 2023, Uganda received its first revenues from oil, but these remain modest: around 6 million dollars, according to the Ministry of Energy. A drop of black gold in an ocean of expectations.
A profound social impact
Beyond the figures, oil is already transforming the social fabric of the region. In Hoima, nicknamed Uganda’s “oil capital,” rents have doubled in five years. Luxury hotels are emerging, while schools struggle to accommodate all the children displaced by infrastructure projects.
“There is a divide between long-time residents and newcomers, drawn by oil money,” observes Reverend Paul Okello. “Young people are full of hope, but also of frustration.”
According to a Human Rights Watch report, more than 100,000 people have been affected by expropriations linked to oil projects. Some are still waiting for their compensation, several years after leaving their land.
For many, oil is not yet synonymous with progress, but rather with broken promises.
A major ecological dilemma
Lake Albert is a unique ecosystem, home to more than 300 species of fish, hippopotamuses, crocodiles, and exceptional birdlife. Any oil pollution could have irreversible consequences.
In 2021, a leak during an exploratory drilling operation contaminated a wetland near the lake. The incident was quickly brought under control, but it rekindled fears of a more serious disaster.
“Oil is a curse if extreme precautions are not taken,” warns Josephine Kabagambe, a biologist with the Wildlife Conservation Society. “A single accident could ruin fishing, the main source of income for thousands of families.”
Authorities claim to have put strict standards in place. But monitoring capacities remain limited, and the recourse mechanisms for affected populations are often inaccessible.
What future for oil-producing Uganda?
As the first barrels are expected to be exported in 2025, Uganda stands at a crossroads. Can oil truly transform the country, or does it risk reproducing the “Dutch disease” scenario, where natural resources weaken other economic sectors?
Some call for inclusive and transparent management, along the lines of the Norwegian model. Others are betting on a rapid diversification of the economy, so as not to stake everything on black gold.
“Oil is a tool, not an end in itself,” recalls political analyst David Owor. “Everything will depend on how it is used. To build or to divide.”
In the villages around Lake Albert, eyes turn toward the horizon. Between hope and uncertainty, residents are waiting to see whether the promises of oil will finally be kept. And whether, one day, the rumble of machinery will give way to the whisper of sustainable development.
But at what price, and for whom?
