In the streets of Libreville, conversations have changed in tone. People talk less about the weather, and more about what is happening beyond the borders. For a few years now, Gabon has no longer been simply the country rich in forests and oil. It has become a strategic point of attention in a world being reshaped. Alliances are evolving, interests are shifting, and the country, long discreet on the international stage, finds itself at the heart of a complex geopolitical game.
A coveted crossroads between Central Africa and the Gulf of Guinea
Located at the intersection of the maritime routes of the Gulf of Guinea and the equatorial forests of Central Africa, Gabon has long attracted covetous eyes. But what was once a discreet interest is today transforming into a more visible struggle for influence. China, Russia, Turkey, and also the Gulf states are multiplying diplomatic visits and promises of investment.
« Gabon has become a strategic anchor point for anyone who wants to carry weight in the region », explains Jean-Marc Nguéma, a political analyst based in Paris. « It is not only a question of resources, it is also a key geographical position. »
China has reinforced its presence through major infrastructure projects, particularly in transport and telecommunications. In 2023, it invested more than 1.2 billion dollars in energy and logistics projects. At the same time, Russia has intensified its military cooperation, while Turkey has opened a consulate in Libreville and signed several trade agreements.
Gabonese diplomacy in full redefinition
Faced with this effervescence, Gabon is gradually redrawing its foreign policy. Long aligned with France, the former colonizer, the country now asserts a more autonomous diplomacy. The withdrawal from the Commonwealth in 2022 and the accession to the Organisation internationale de la Francophonie were only the precursors of a broader repositioning.
« We no longer want to be perceived as anyone’s backyard », the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Régis Onanga Ndiaye, recently declared at a forum in Addis Ababa. « Gabon wants to be a sovereign actor, capable of choosing its partners according to its interests. »
This change of course translates into a diversification of alliances, but also into a desire to play a more active role in regional bodies such as ECCAS (Economic Community of Central African States) and the African Union.
The weight of oil and the temptation of transition
An economy historically dependent on oil, Gabon is at a crossroads. While black gold still accounts for nearly 80 % of its exports, market fluctuations and international pressure for an energy transition are forcing the country to rethink its model.
« Oil can no longer be our only compass », confides Clarisse Mboumba, economist at the Université Omar Bongo. « Global geopolitical shifts, particularly the war in Ukraine and the rise of renewable energies, show us that dependence on crude oil is a trap. »
The government has launched several initiatives to diversify the economy, betting on timber, manganese, agriculture and tourism. But results remain modest. In 2023, non-oil growth represented only 2.1 % of GDP, compared to 5.8 % for the oil sector.
Fragile political stability under scrutiny
Global geopolitical upheavals do not simply redraw alliances. They also weaken internal balances. Following the military coup of August 2023, which ended the reign of the Bongo family after more than 55 years in power, the country entered a period of uncertain transition.
General Brice Oligui Nguema, now president of the transition, promises free elections and institutional refoundation. But tensions remain high and distrust among part of the population persists.
« We drove out a system, but have not yet built the next one », summarizes Stéphane Ndong, a civil society activist. « The risk is that foreign powers take advantage of this instability to impose their agendas. »
The United States, the European Union and several NGOs have called for vigilance, fearing that the political vacuum may open the door to external influences less concerned with democracy.
A youth in search of bearings
More than 60 % of the Gabonese population is under 30 years old. This youth, connected, educated but often unemployed, observes the ongoing changes with lucidity. They know that the future of the country is not played out only in chancelleries, but also in the streets, universities and local businesses.
« We are told about strategic partnerships, major projects, but on the ground, things move slowly », laments Aïcha Mouele, a political science student. « We want to be actors of change, not spectators of a game between powers. »
Citizen movements are emerging, demanding more transparency in the management of resources, better governance and genuine inclusion of young people in decision-making processes. The challenge is immense, but the energy is there.
A balance to find between openness and sovereignty
Gabon is at a turning point. It can take advantage of global rivalries to attract investment, strengthen its economy and position itself as an indispensable regional actor. But it also runs the risk of becoming a playing field for foreign powers with divergent interests.
« The challenge is to keep control of our destiny », insists political scientist Jean-Marc Nguéma. « We must know how to open doors without losing the keys to the house. »
In this quest for balance, every decision counts. Every alliance, every reform, every project can tip the scales toward emancipation or dependence.
Will Gabon be able to chart its own course amid the geopolitical storms shaking the world? Or will it end up getting lost in the labyrinth of overlapping influences?
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