Chad: History, Political Situation and Geopolitical Role in Africa

What is the current situation in Chad?

Chad occupies a strategic position between Central Africa, the Sahel, and North Africa. Its political history, security challenges, and regional military role explain why the country is regularly cited in African geopolitical analyses.

In the dusty streets of N’Djamena, conversations come alive over a hot coffee or in the shade of an acacia tree. Here, at the heart of the Sahel, a silent but decisive part of global geopolitics may be unfolding. Chad, long relegated to the margins of international attention, is now drawing the gaze of major powers. Why is this landlocked country, battered by crises, suddenly becoming a major strategic issue?

A crossroads between instability and influence

Chad shares its borders with six countries, including Libya, Sudan, and the Central African Republic, all of which are shaken by internal conflicts. This geographical position makes it a key piece in the Sahel’s security puzzle.“Chad is a lock. If it gives way, the entire region collapses,” says Idriss Mahamat, a geostrategy analyst based in Dakar. For years, the country has served as a rear base for French and African military operations against jihadist groups active in Mali and Niger.In 2021, the death of President Idriss Déby Itno on the battlefield only reinforced this centrality. His son, Mahamat Idriss Déby, took the helm of a military transitional council, with the tacit support of Paris. A transition that drags on, fueling internal tensions while, for now, guaranteeing a degree of stability in the eyes of foreign powers.

The growing appetites of major powers

France is no longer alone. In recent years, Russia, China, and also Turkey have been taking a close interest in Chad. Each is quietly moving its pieces.“We are seeing Russian advisers arriving, Chinese infrastructure projects, and very active Turkish NGOs in education and healthcare,” confides a European diplomatic source in N’Djamena. “It is a muted war of influence, but a very real one.”Russia, in particular, appears to want to replicate in Chad the model it already applies in the Central African Republic: military support in exchange for access to resources. Persistent rumors point to the presence of Wagner group mercenaries in the north of the country, near the Libyan border.China, for its part, is playing the development card. Roads, hospitals, telecommunications: Beijing finances and builds, in exchange for mining and oil contracts. Chad indeed holds oil reserves estimated at more than 1.5 billion barrels, still largely underexploited.

A youth in search of a voice

But beyond international strategies, it is Chadian youth who could shake things up. More than 65% of Chadians are under 25. A connected, educated, and increasingly politicized generation.“We no longer want our future to be decided in Paris, Moscow, or Beijing,” says Sarah, 22, a student at the University of N’Djamena. “We want real democracy, not a façade.”Citizen movements such as Wakit Tama or Iyina (“Enough!” in Chadian Arabic) mobilize in the streets and on social media. In April 2022, violent protests shook the capital following the announcement of an extension of the military transition. The crackdown was brutal: at least 50 deaths according to NGOs.But far from discouraging young people, these events appear to have strengthened their determination. “Chad is not just a pawn on the global chessboard. It is our home, and we want to take back the keys,” says Moussa, 28, a community activist.

Resources, a hidden but central issue

In addition to oil, Chad’s subsoil contains gold, uranium, and significant fossil water reserves. Riches that fuel covetousness, but from which the population benefits very little.According to the World Bank, more than 42% of Chadians live below the poverty line. The human development index ranks the country 190th out of 191. Yet oil revenues have generated several billion dollars since the 2000s.“Where does this money go? Certainly not into schools or hospitals,” laments a former senior civil servant speaking anonymously. “The system is locked up by an elite that divides the dividends of the rent among itself.”Transparency on mining and oil contracts remains opaque. Initiatives such as the EITI (Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative) struggle to gain traction in a tense political climate.

A military arena increasingly coveted

Chad is home to one of the largest French military bases in Africa, with more than 1,000 soldiers stationed in N’Djamena. The United States also has a discreet presence there, notably through surveillance drones operating from the north of the country.But this military presence is beginning to be contested. “People are tired of their country being used as a battlefield for others,” explains Mahamat Saleh, an independent journalist. “There is talk of fighting terrorism, but little improvement is seen in daily life.”The rise of Russia in the region is also pushing Western powers to redefine their positions. In 2023, discussions took place between Washington and N’Djamena to strengthen security cooperation, in the face of the growing threat from armed groups south of Libya.Chad is thus becoming a strategic hub, not only for control of the Sahel, but also as an observation point for dynamics in Central Africa and the Horn of Africa.

Toward a historic turning point?

The country is at a crossroads. Between the ambitions of foreign powers, the aspirations of an awakening youth, and security challenges, Chad could well become the stage for a major geopolitical shift.“What is happening here is a mirror of what awaits other African countries: the clash between old alliances, new influences, and a population that no longer wants to remain a spectator,” analyses Fatima Djibrine, a political scientist at the University of Maroua.So, is the future of geopolitics really being played out in Chad? Or is it merely a reflection of a continent in the midst of reconfiguration, where every country, even the most discreet, can become the center of a new world order?

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